US Unemployment Risk Index (IRI) - July, 2025 update
Although the headline U.S. unemployment rate is drifting only marginally higher, the Unemployment Risk Index (URI) is starting to firm across both horizons.
Luciano Rispoli
US Inflation Risk Index (IRI) - July, 2025 update
The latest July (2025) Advance Macro Inflation Risk Index (IRI) update delivers a "two‑speeds" message on U.S. inflationary pressures.
AccuMacroAI™ US Real GDP forecasts Q2-2025 : Q1-2026 - June 2025 update.
Sizzle, Slip, Surge: Advance Macro Research’s Forecast Rides the Inventory-Cycle Roller-Coaster.
Introducing the AccuMacroAI™ forecasts.
Every data-print whispers clues about the future. AccuMacroAI™ is the storyteller behind the scenes: an end-to-end forecasting pipeline that turns raw macro and market data into actionable insights you can rely on. Below is a quick tour of how it works - and why that matters - written for economists,
Advance Macro ECB Hawk/Dove Score (ECB press-conferences)- Update - July 2024
The updated Advance Macro ECB Hawk/Dove Sentiment Index showed an increase in the ECB's introductory statement's hawkishness, while the Q&A session sentiment became more neutral.
Recession Probability Monitor Update - China - July 2024
The latest China recession probability monitor points to a decrease in the near term probability of an upcoming recession in China. On the other hand, the probability of a recession at 24 months horizon is nearly 100%.
Recession Probability Monitor - Update - India - July 2024
The latest India recession probability monitor points to a further decrease in the probability of recession in India.
Recession Probability Monitor - Update - Euro Area - July 2024
Considering a medium-term horizon, the latest Euro Area (EA) recession probability monitor points to an increase in the probability of an upcoming recession in the Euro-Area.
Recession Probability Monitor Update - UK - July 2024
The latest UK recession probability monitor points to an decrease in the probability of an upcoming recession in the UK.
ECB Hawk/Dove Score Index (Executive Board Members Speeches) - Update: June 2024
In this latest update of the ECB Hawk/Dove Score Index (speeches) we analyse the latest communication of Executive Board Members of the ECB outside scheduled ECB GC meetings.