AccuMacroAI™ US Real GDP forecasts Q2-2025 : Q1-2026 - June 2025 update.
Sizzle, Slip, Surge: Advance Macro Research’s Forecast Rides the Inventory-Cycle Roller-Coaster.
Luciano Rispoli
Introducing the AccuMacroAI™ forecasts.
Every data-print whispers clues about the future. AccuMacroAI™ is the storyteller behind the scenes: an end-to-end forecasting pipeline that turns raw macro and market data into actionable insights you can rely on. Below is a quick tour of how it works - and why that matters - written for economists,
Advance Macro ECB Hawk/Dove Score (ECB press-conferences)- Update - July 2024
The updated Advance Macro ECB Hawk/Dove Sentiment Index showed an increase in the ECB's introductory statement's hawkishness, while the Q&A session sentiment became more neutral.
Recession Probability Monitor Update - China - July 2024
The latest China recession probability monitor points to a decrease in the near term probability of an upcoming recession in China. On the other hand, the probability of a recession at 24 months horizon is nearly 100%.
Recession Probability Monitor - Update - India - July 2024
The latest India recession probability monitor points to a further decrease in the probability of recession in India.
Recession Probability Monitor - Update - Euro Area - July 2024
Considering a medium-term horizon, the latest Euro Area (EA) recession probability monitor points to an increase in the probability of an upcoming recession in the Euro-Area.
Recession Probability Monitor Update - UK - July 2024
The latest UK recession probability monitor points to an decrease in the probability of an upcoming recession in the UK.
ECB Hawk/Dove Score Index (Executive Board Members Speeches) - Update: June 2024
In this latest update of the ECB Hawk/Dove Score Index (speeches) we analyse the latest communication of Executive Board Members of the ECB outside scheduled ECB GC meetings.
Recession Probability Monitor Update - US - July 2024
The latest RPM shows an increased likelihood of a US recession. Key indicators include S&P 500 returns, changes in NFP, and the 10-year to 3-month rate spread, with the yield curve inversion in early 2023 being particularly significant.
Advance Macro FOMC Hawk/Dove Index (Fed's Official Speeches) - Update: June 2024
Members of the Federal Reserve frequently give public speeches, providing transparency and guiding market perceptions. Monitoring these speeches reveals a general "higher-for-longer" sentiment regarding the federal funds rate.